TORONTO, September 23, 2020 – According to the latest economic forecast from Moody's Analytics and RPS Real Property Solutions Inc., house prices in Canada may experience a decline of about 7% at a national level in 2021, as a result of contracted economic activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Abhilasha Singh, Moody’s Analytics economist and author of the report, notes that fiscal stimulus measures and mortgage deferrals, combined with low interest rates and Canada’s strong demographics, have kept Canada’s housing market marching ahead throughout the COVID-19 crisis. However she says, “House prices will decline nationally in 2021 as government stimulus measures fade, the recovery and immigration slow, and high unemployment and lower income restrain buyers’ return to the market. Although all regions are expected to experience price declines, the size of the impact will vary meaningfully across them.”
Assessing the divergent impact these macro-economic drivers will have on house prices across Canada just became easier with the RPS-Moody’s Analytics House Price Forecasts, which have added city, town and neighborhood-level projections to their metro, provincial and national level forecasts.
“We’re proud to partner with Moody’s Analytics to deliver a level of insight currently not available commercially in the marketplace,“ said Joel Bates, President of RPS, “We believe that the forecasts can help financial institutions to stress-test their portfolios and explore growth opportunities from a national level and down to the neighbourhood level with confidence.”
The RPS-Moody’s Analytics House Price Forecasts show that cities, towns and neighborhoods do not always follow national or provincial trends, nor do the prices of neighboring geographies or different property styles in the same geography behave the same way. Under the baseline scenario, Moody’s Analytics and RPS indicate house price appreciation will remain regionally asymmetric, with house prices in Calgary and Edmonton facing the slowest recovery due to energy sector uncertainty. In urban cores, a drop in immigration due to COVID-19 will hamper growth in neighborhoods dominated by the condo segment.
The RPS-Moody’s Analytics House Price Forecasts reflect the latest data collected by RPS Real Property Solutions Inc., a leading provider of Canadian residential real estate valuation and business intelligence, and the latest economic outlook for Canada from Moody's Analytics, a leader in regional economic forecasting. The forecasts provide for three major residential property types across Canada and its subnational areas, under baseline and alternative economic scenarios. The service offers clients unparalleled insight into how the economy will impact the performance of their mortgage loan or investment portfolios.
For more information about the RPS - Moody's Analytics House Price Forecasts, please visit here.
RPS Real Property Solutions is a leading Canadian provider of outsourced real estate solutions including property valuations, data-driven risk management tools, market trending and insights, and consulting services. We partner with financial institutions, mortgage professionals, real estate professionals, government agencies and economic research firms to help them make informed decisions with confidence. Our expertise has established RPS as the strategic partner for real solutions to real property challenges.
RPS Real Property Solutions Inc. is wholly owned by Brookfield Business Partners L.P. (TSX: BBU.UN, NYSE: BBU), a public company with majority ownership by Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX: BAM.A, NYSE: BAM).
RPS Real Property Solutions Focuses on Adding Value to the Homeownership Journey. For more information about RPS Real Property Solutions, visit our website or connect with us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Instagram.
Moody’s Analytics provides financial intelligence and analytical tools to help business leaders make better, faster decisions. Our deep risk expertise, expansive information resources, and innovative application of technology help our clients confidently navigate an evolving marketplace. We are known for our industry-leading and award-winning solutions, made up of research, data, software, and professional services, assembled to deliver a seamless customer experience. We create confidence in thousands of organizations worldwide, with our commitment to excellence, open mindset approach, and focus on meeting customer needs. For more information about Moody’s Analytics, visit our website or connect with us on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Moody's Analytics, Inc. is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO). Moody's Corporation reported revenue of $4.8 billion in 2019, employs approximately 11,100 people worldwide and maintains a presence in 40 countries.
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